奥士康 (002913.SZ) TACTICAL_OFFENSE（战术进攻 / 领涨先锋）

Executive Summary（结论摘要）

1. Company & Business Model（公司与商业模式）

奥士康（002913.SZ）是中国高阶高多层印制电路板（PCB）核心领军企业之一。公司专注于高精密高多层板、高阶HDI及特种电路板的研发与制造：

2. Fundamentals（基本面趋势与财务质地）

公司 2026 年中报展现出明确的“营收持续稳健扩张、泰国新产能落地、Q2单季度业绩爆发反转”特征：

3. Multi-Timeframe Quantitative Charts（多周期量化图表）

4. Peer Group Benchmarking（同行业可比公司横向对标）

5. Serenity Claims Four-Way Benchmarking（Serenity 论断四重对标）

6. Scenario Probabilities & Action Plan（情景胜率与操作建议）

7. Structured Machine JSON Sidecar（机器可读 JSON 数据）

{
  "research_mode": "SERENITY",
  "symbol": "002913.SZ",
  "company_name": "奥士康",
  "as_of": "2026-09-03",
  "data_quality": {
    "status": "FULL",
    "history_years": 8.8,
    "level2": false,
    "fundamentals": true
  },
  "regime": {
    "monthly": {
      "code": "MONTHLY_BULL",
      "label_zh": "月线多头",
      "display": "MONTHLY_BULL（月线多头）"
    },
    "weekly": {
      "code": "WEEKLY_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMED",
      "label_zh": "周线突破已确认",
      "display": "WEEKLY_BREAKOUT_CONFIRMED（周线突破已确认）"
    },
    "daily": {
      "code": "DAILY_TRIGGER_BREAKOUT",
      "label_zh": "日线放量突破",
      "display": "DAILY_TRIGGER_BREAKOUT（日线放量突破）"
    }
  },
  "capital_behavior": {
    "label": "ATTACK",
    "label_zh": "进攻",
    "display": "ATTACK（进攻）",
    "confidence": {
      "code": "HIGH",
      "label_zh": "高置信",
      "display": "HIGH（高置信）"
    },
    "evidence": [
      "单日大阳线放量突破：8月31日收盘大涨+8.45%，成交量放大至8.5万手（VR=1.22），收于日内最高位（CLV=0.939）",
      "均线系统全多头簇：日线MA10(59.12)>MA20(56.45)>MA50(53.52)>MA120(52.84)>MA250(46.30)，呈现完美攻击发散形态",
      "Alpha超额动能强劲：相对沪深300近20日超额收益+55.45%，近60日超额+27.86%，算力PCB资金右侧加速抢筹"
    ],
    "counter_evidence": [
      "短期涨幅较大后乖离率有所升高，需防范逼近70.0元整数关口获利盘震荡整固",
      "上游覆铜板与铜箔原材料价格波动对阶段毛利率可能带来温和扰动"
    ],
    "disclaimer": "Behavioral inference from observable data; not verified trader intent."
  },
  "fundamentals": {
    "state": {
      "code": "FUNDAMENTAL_CYCLICAL_UP",
      "label_zh": "基本面周期向上/拐点确立",
      "display": "FUNDAMENTAL_CYCLICAL_UP（基本面周期向上/拐点确立）"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "code": "HIGH",
      "label_zh": "高置信",
      "display": "HIGH（高置信）"
    },
    "metrics": {
      "revenue_2026h1": 29.87,
      "revenue_yoy": 16.45,
      "net_profit_2026h1": 0.83,
      "net_profit_2026q2_qoq": 273.7,
      "gross_margin_2026h1": 20.05,
      "debt_to_asset": 50.46,
      "bps": 13.86,
      "pb": 4.62
    }
  },
  "industry": {
    "state": {
      "code": "INDUSTRY_HIGH_BOOM",
      "label_zh": "行业高景气 / AI算力PCB与出海共振",
      "display": "INDUSTRY_HIGH_BOOM（行业高景气 / AI算力PCB与出海共振）"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "code": "HIGH",
      "label_zh": "高置信",
      "display": "HIGH（高置信）"
    }
  },
  "valuation": {
    "state": {
      "code": "VALUATION_REASONABLE",
      "label_zh": "估值合理 / 补涨弹性极高",
      "display": "VALUATION_REASONABLE（估值合理 / 补涨弹性极高）"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "code": "HIGH",
      "label_zh": "高置信",
      "display": "HIGH（高置信）"
    }
  },
  "cross_validation": {
    "overall_scenario": {
      "code": "TACTICAL_OFFENSE",
      "label_zh": "战术进攻 / 领涨先锋",
      "display": "TACTICAL_OFFENSE（战术进攻 / 领涨先锋）"
    },
    "confidence": {
      "code": "HIGH",
      "label_zh": "高置信",
      "display": "HIGH（高置信）"
    }
  },
  "scores": {
    "fundamental_score": 86.0,
    "technical_capital_score": 92.0,
    "overall_tier": "🥈 第二梯队 (优质 · 右侧进攻 / 领涨先锋)"
  },
  "levels": {
    "current_price": 64.05,
    "daily_support_zone": [
      56.0,
      58.5
    ],
    "weekly_support_zone": [
      52.0,
      54.5
    ],
    "daily_resistance_zone": [
      68.0,
      70.5
    ],
    "major_breakout_zone": [
      72.0,
      75.0
    ],
    "atr14d": 3.39
  },
  "serenity_claims": [
    {
      "claim": "AI服务器与算力高多层PCB放量带动营收扩张",
      "claim_type": "GROWTH_CATALYST",
      "metric_name": "营业收入增速 (Revenue YoY)",
      "company_val": 16.45,
      "peer_median": 14.2,
      "self_hist_pct": 85.0,
      "peer_pct": 65.0,
      "unit": "%",
      "status": "POSITIVE（积极）",
      "alpha_beta": "COMPANY_ALPHA（公司阿尔法）"
    },
    {
      "claim": "泰国基地一期投产承接海外AI算力链高阶订单",
      "claim_type": "OVERSEAS_EXPANSION",
      "metric_name": "海外产能布局领先度 (Global Capacity)",
      "company_val": 90.0,
      "peer_median": 60.0,
      "self_hist_pct": 95.0,
      "peer_pct": 88.0,
      "unit": "分",
      "status": "POSITIVE（积极）",
      "alpha_beta": "COMPANY_ALPHA（公司阿尔法）"
    },
    {
      "claim": "单Q2净利润环比暴增273.7%确立底部反转拐点",
      "claim_type": "PROFIT_REBOUND",
      "metric_name": "单季度净利润环比增速 (QoQ Profit Growth)",
      "company_val": 273.7,
      "peer_median": 45.0,
      "self_hist_pct": 96.0,
      "peer_pct": 92.0,
      "unit": "%",
      "status": "POSITIVE（积极）",
      "alpha_beta": "COMPANY_ALPHA（公司阿尔法）"
    },
    {
      "claim": "PCB算力第一梯队中市值与PB弹性极大具有显著补涨空间",
      "claim_type": "VALUATION_ELASTICITY",
      "metric_name": "市净率与市值弹性 (PB & Cap Elasticity)",
      "company_val": 4.62,
      "peer_median": 7.04,
      "self_hist_pct": 75.0,
      "peer_pct": 35.0,
      "unit": "x",
      "status": "POSITIVE（积极）",
      "alpha_beta": "COMPANY_ALPHA（公司阿尔法）"
    },
    {
      "claim": "上游覆铜板/铜箔原材料成本波动与汇率扰动风险",
      "claim_type": "RAW_MATERIAL_RISK",
      "metric_name": "原材料成本敏感度 (Raw Material Sensitivity)",
      "company_val": 62.5,
      "peer_median": 58.0,
      "self_hist_pct": 70.0,
      "peer_pct": 60.0,
      "unit": "%",
      "status": "NEGATIVE（消极/风险）",
      "alpha_beta": "INDUSTRY_BETA（行业贝塔）"
    }
  ],
  "peer_benchmark": [
    {
      "code": "002913",
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      "price": 64.05,
      "change_pct": 8.45,
      "pe": 104.39,
      "pb": 4.62,
      "margin": 20.05,
      "debt": 50.46,
      "turnover": 2.78,
      "rs60": 27.86,
      "cap": 195.63,
      "is_target": true,
      "biz": "高端高多层PCB/AI服务器加速卡/海外泰国基地"
    },
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      "margin": 35.8,
      "debt": 38.2,
      "turnover": 2.58,
      "rs60": 34.2,
      "cap": 2401.83,
      "is_target": false,
      "biz": "AI服务器/800G交换机PCB龙头/英伟达核心"
    },
    {
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      "is_target": false,
      "biz": "AI算力卡/高阶HDI/高多层板/英伟达供应商"
    },
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      "biz": "通信基站/封装载板/数据中心高多层PCB"
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      "is_target": false,
      "biz": "汽车电子/高频高速PCB/软硬结合板"
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      "is_target": false,
      "biz": "FCBGA封装载板/高频PCB样板/芯片测试板"
    }
  ]
}